The International Arab Journal of Information Technology (IAJIT)

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A Hybrid Approach for Modeling Financial Time Series

 The problem we tackle concerns forecasting time ser ies in financial markets. AutoRegressive Moving&Average (ARMA) methods and computational intelligence have also been used to tackle this problem. We propose a novel method for time series forecasting based on a hybrid combinati on of ARMA and Gene Expression Programming (GEP) in duced models. Time series from financial domains often encapsulat e different linear and non&linear patterns. ARMA mo dels, although flexible, assume a linear form for the models. GEP evolves models adapting to the data without any res trictions with respect to the form of the model or its coefficients. Our appr oach benefits from the capability of ARMA to identi fy linear trends as well as GEP’s ability to obtain models that capture nonl inear patterns from data. Investigations are performed on real data sets. They show a definite improvement in the accuracy of forecasts of the hybrid method over pure ARMA and GEP used separately. Experimental results are analyzed and d iscussed. Conclusions and some directions for further research end the paper .    


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[18 ISI], and 18 books. She is a reviewer and editor at many journals. She was the cahirlady at many conferences. A Hybrid Approach for Modeling Financial Time Series 335 Elena Bautu received her BSc degree in computer science from Al. I. Cuza University, Romania in 2003, her MSc degree in applied mathematics from the Ovidius University, Constanta, Romania in 2005, and the PhD degree in computer science artificial intelligence from Al. I . Cuza University, Romania in 2010. Her research interests include evolutionary computation and data mining, especially data modeling, optimization, tim e series forecasting and inverse problems. She is aut hor of over 30 research articles, of which 15 are index ed in the ISI Thomson database. She is reviewer for geophysical research letters and IT Nuovo Cimento basic topics in physics.